Your competitor just launched a feature that directly targets your core differentiator. Your team scrambles to respond, reallocating product roadmap and rushing a counter-message to market.
This reactive cycle repeats quarterly. By the time you respond to one move, competitors have made the next one.
War gaming flips this dynamic. Instead of reacting to competitor moves, you predict them—then prepare responses before they happen. It sounds theoretical, but the framework is practical and takes just a few hours quarterly.
Here's how product marketing teams use war gaming to stay ahead of competition.
What War Gaming Actually Is
War gaming is structured role-play where your team simulates competitor decision-making to predict their next moves.
Not: Guessing what competitors might do based on hunches Is: Systematic analysis of competitor incentives, constraints, and patterns
The output isn't certainty about what competitors will do. It's preparedness for their most likely strategic options.
The Quarterly War Gaming Framework
Run this exercise quarterly with product, sales, and PMM leaders. You'll need 2-3 hours and a conference room.
Participants needed:
- Product marketing lead (facilitator)
- Product leader (technical perspective)
- Sales leader (deal-level intelligence)
- CEO or strategy lead (business context)
Fewer than 4 people lacks perspective. More than 7 loses focus.
Phase 1: Establish Competitor Context (30 minutes)
Before predicting moves, align on what you know about each competitor.
For your top 3 competitors, document:
Recent actions (last 6 months):
- Product launches
- Pricing changes
- Funding rounds
- Executive hires
- Market expansion
Known constraints:
- Technical debt or platform limitations
- Customer segments they struggle to serve
- Competitive losses (segments/deals they typically lose)
Strategic incentives:
- Funding stage (pressure to grow vs. pressure to show profit)
- Public vs. private (quarterly pressures vs. long-term plays)
- Market position (leader defending vs. challenger attacking)
This context prevents fantasy scenario planning ("What if competitor builds magic AI?") and grounds predictions in reality.
Phase 2: Role-Play Competitor Strategy (60 minutes)
Divide your team into groups, one per top competitor. Each group role-plays that competitor's strategy team.
Instructions for each group:
"You are [Competitor X]'s strategy team. Given your current position, constraints, and incentives, what are the 3 most logical strategic moves you should make in the next 6-12 months?"
Prompts to guide thinking:
Product strategy:
- What features would shore up your weaknesses?
- What capabilities would let you win deals you currently lose?
- What platform investments would create long-term moats?
Market strategy:
- What segments offer growth with minimal competition?
- What partnerships would accelerate distribution?
- What pricing changes would increase revenue or market share?
Positioning strategy:
- How could you reframe the category in your favor?
- What messaging would neutralize competitors' advantages?
- What proof points could you develop to support new positioning?
Each group presents 3 likely moves with reasoning for why they're probable.
Phase 3: Assess Probability and Impact (30 minutes)
For each predicted competitor move, plot on a 2x2 matrix:
X-axis: Probability (Low to High) How likely is this move given their constraints and incentives?
Y-axis: Impact on us (Low to High) How much would this affect our competitive position?
The four quadrants:
High probability, high impact → Prepare response immediately High probability, low impact → Monitor but don't invest response resources Low probability, high impact → Create contingency plan, don't execute yet Low probability, low impact → Ignore
Focus on the top-right quadrant: high probability AND high impact moves.
Phase 4: Prepare Counter-Moves (30 minutes)
For high-probability, high-impact scenarios, develop response playbooks.
Three response types:
Preemptive response: Act before competitor moves to neutralize their potential advantage.
Example: If you predict competitor will target mid-market, strengthen mid-market positioning and customer proof points now.
Rapid response: Prepare messaging and enablement to deploy immediately when competitor acts.
Example: If you predict pricing attack, draft battle cards and objection handlers ready to ship within 24 hours.
Redirect response: Change the conversation to ground where you're stronger.
Example: If competitor launches feature you lack, prepare messaging that repositions around different value: "Feature X solves the symptom. Our approach addresses the root cause."
Document these as playbooks:
- Scenario trigger: "When competitor announces [X]..."
- Immediate response (within 24 hours): Sales talk track, social response
- Week 1 response: Updated battle cards, enablement session
- Month 1 response: Content, case studies, product roadmap shifts
Real Example: Predicting a Pricing Attack
Competitor context:
- Recently raised Series B ($50M)
- Hired VP of Sales with aggressive growth mandate
- Currently losing deals to you on price
- Strong product but limited brand awareness
War gaming prediction: "In next 6 months, competitor will launch aggressive pricing play—either introduce free tier or cut enterprise pricing 30-40%—to accelerate customer acquisition and use Series B runway to buy market share."
Probability: High (funding + growth pressure + current loss pattern) Impact: High (would force pricing conversation in every deal)
Prepared response playbook:
Preemptive (do now):
- Strengthen value-based messaging that justifies premium pricing
- Develop ROI calculator showing cost of "cheap" solutions
- Build customer case studies emphasizing outcomes, not cost
Rapid response (deploy when it happens):
- Sales talk track: "They're buying market share with investor money. We've been profitable for 3 years. Which company do you want to depend on?"
- Updated battle card with financial sustainability comparison
- Customer email explaining your pricing philosophy
Redirect (shift conversation):
- Launch "total cost of ownership" content series
- Emphasize support quality, implementation success, long-term partnership
- Position their pricing as "volume play" vs. your "strategic partnership"
When competitor launched free tier 4 months later, you shipped response materials same day instead of scrambling for two weeks.
Signals to Validate Predictions
War gaming produces hypotheses. Validate them by monitoring specific signals:
If you predict feature launch:
- Job postings for engineers with relevant expertise
- Partner announcements that enable the capability
- Beta program mentions in reviews or forums
If you predict market expansion:
- Sales hiring in new regions
- Content targeting new personas
- Partnership announcements with regional players
If you predict pricing change:
- Executive comments about growth priorities
- Win rate changes in price-sensitive segments
- Messaging shifts toward volume or accessibility
Track these signals monthly. When 2-3 align, probability of predicted move increases significantly.
Common War Gaming Mistakes
Mistake 1: Only considering product moves Competitors make strategy, pricing, and market moves too. Don't limit war gaming to feature predictions.
Mistake 2: Assuming competitors are irrational "They'd never do that because it's stupid" isn't war gaming. Assume competitors make logical moves given their incentives, even if you disagree with their strategy.
Mistake 3: Planning for everything You can't prepare for 20 scenarios. Focus on 3-4 high-probability, high-impact moves. Better to be ready for likely scenarios than half-ready for everything.
Mistake 4: War gaming once and forgetting Competitor incentives and constraints change quarterly. Refresh war gaming every 90 days, not annually.
The Competitive Advantage of Preparation
War gaming doesn't give you perfect foresight. It gives you prepared positions.
When competitors make predicted moves, you respond within hours, not weeks. Sales has talk track ready. Product knows whether to counter or ignore. Marketing has content prepared.
More importantly, preemptive responses let you shape competitive dynamics instead of just reacting to them. If you know competitor is targeting mid-market in Q3, you can strengthen mid-market position in Q1—making their expansion harder before they even try.
Competitors still surprise you sometimes. But the discipline of predicting their strategy dramatically improves your competitive response speed and effectiveness.
And in competitive markets, speed of response often matters more than perfection of response.