My CEO asked for competitive market share data to prepare for a board meeting. "How much of the market do we own versus Competitor X and Competitor Y?"
I did what most PMMs do: I googled for analyst reports. Forrester Wave. Gartner Magic Quadrant. IDC MarketScape.
The reports existed. They cost $5,000-$15,000 each. And when I read the executive summaries, the market definitions didn't match our category. The data was 6-12 months old. The vendor lists included companies that weren't even our competitors.
I could have asked my CEO for budget to buy these reports. But I knew they wouldn't actually answer his question.
So I built my own market share analysis using public data, customer research, and triangulation. Total cost: $0. Time investment: 8 hours. Accuracy: better than the analyst reports because it reflected our actual competitive set and our actual market.
Here's exactly how I did it.
Why Analyst Reports Often Get It Wrong
I'm not saying Forrester and Gartner are useless. For some purposes—analyst relations, vendor credibility, enterprise buyer trust—they're valuable.
But for understanding your actual competitive market share, they have three fundamental problems:
Problem 1: Market definitions don't match yours
Analysts create broad categories that span multiple sub-markets. Gartner's "Marketing Planning & Execution" category includes everything from project management to marketing automation to product marketing platforms.
If you're building a product marketing platform, you don't compete with generic project management tools or email marketing automation. But the analyst report lumps you together anyway.
You end up with market share data that includes irrelevant competitors and misses relevant ones.
Problem 2: Data is 6-12 months stale
Analyst reports are published quarterly or annually. The data collection happened 3-6 months before publication. By the time you read it, the market has shifted.
In fast-moving categories, this makes the data nearly useless. A competitor that was tiny 12 months ago might now be your biggest threat.
Problem 3: Methodology favors large, established vendors
Analyst firms collect data through vendor surveys and customer surveys. Large vendors with big customer bases and dedicated analyst relations teams get better coverage.
Smaller, fast-growing competitors—often your biggest competitive threats—get undercounted or missed entirely.
I've seen Gartner reports that listed a competitor with 200 customers as "niche" while we had 450 customers. Their methodology missed us because we didn't have an analyst relations person calling them constantly.
The Framework: How to Build Market Share Analysis from Scratch
I use a four-step framework that triangulates multiple data sources to estimate market share:
Step 1: Define your actual competitive market
Step 2: Estimate competitor customer counts
Step 3: Estimate average deal sizes
Step 4: Calculate relative market share
This isn't perfect. But it's directionally accurate, customized to your actual market, and based on current data.
Step 1: Define Your Actual Competitive Market
Before you can measure share, you need to define what market you're measuring.
Don't use analyst definitions. Use the market as defined by who you actually compete with in deals.
Method: Pull last 50 competitive deals
I pulled our last 50 closed/won and closed/lost deals where we faced competition. I analyzed which companies we competed against most frequently:
- Competitor A: 32 deals (64%)
- Competitor B: 24 deals (48%)
- Competitor C: 19 deals (38%)
- Competitor D: 12 deals (24%)
- Generic PM tools (Asana, Monday): 18 deals (36%)
This defined my competitive market: Us + Competitors A/B/C/D + generic PM tools category.
I excluded companies that showed up in fewer than 10% of deals (fewer than 5 mentions). They're not meaningfully competing for the same customers.
Step 2: Estimate Competitor Customer Counts
This is the hardest part because most competitors don't publish customer counts. You have to triangulate from multiple sources.
Source 1: Public disclosures
Some competitors publish customer counts in:
- Press releases (especially funding announcements)
- Case study pages (count the logos)
- Investor presentations (if publicly traded or filed S-1)
- Review sites (G2, Capterra often show customer count ranges)
I found:
- Competitor A: Claimed "2,000+ customers" in Series C announcement (18 months ago)
- Competitor B: "1,200 customers" in their latest funding press release (6 months ago)
- Competitor C: G2 shows "500-1,000 customers"
- Competitor D: No public count, but 180 customer logos on case study page
Source 2: Review site extrapolation
G2 and Capterra show review counts. There's a rough correlation between review count and customer count:
Typical ratio: 1 review per 20-50 customers (varies by category and company)
I checked:
- Competitor A: 180 reviews × 30 = ~5,400 customers (higher than their claimed 2,000 from 18 months ago—likely grew)
- Competitor B: 95 reviews × 30 = ~2,850 customers
- Competitor C: 42 reviews × 30 = ~1,260 customers
Source 3: Job postings analysis
Company size correlates with customer success team size. I checked LinkedIn for "Customer Success Manager" titles at each competitor:
- Competitor A: 45 CSMs
- Competitor B: 28 CSMs
- Competitor C: 12 CSMs
- Competitor D: 8 CSMs
Typical CSM:customer ratio in our space: 1 CSM per 100-150 customers
This gives another data point:
- Competitor A: 45 CSMs × 125 = ~5,625 customers
- Competitor B: 28 CSMs × 125 = ~3,500 customers
Source 4: Win/loss interview customer counts
When I interview prospects who evaluated competitors, I ask: "How many customers did they mention having?"
From 15 interviews:
- Competitor A mentioned "5,000+ customers" in 8 sales conversations
- Competitor B mentioned "3,000 customers" in 6 sales conversations
- Competitor C mentioned "1,500 customers" in 4 sales conversations
Triangulation: Combine sources to estimate
I took the median from multiple sources:
| Competitor | Press Release | Review Calc | CSM Calc | Sales Claims | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Competitor A | 2,000 (old) | 5,400 | 5,625 | 5,000 | 5,200 |
| Competitor B | 1,200 | 2,850 | 3,500 | 3,000 | 3,000 |
| Competitor C | - | 1,260 | 1,500 | 1,500 | 1,400 |
| Competitor D | - | - | 1,000 | - | 900 |
| Us | 450 | 510 | 525 | - | 480 |
These aren't perfect, but they're directionally accurate within ±20%.
Step 3: Estimate Average Deal Sizes (ARR)
Customer count alone doesn't tell you market share. You need revenue estimates.
Most competitors don't publish ARR, but you can estimate it from:
Source 1: Pricing page analysis
I reviewed competitor pricing pages and noted:
- Competitor A: $5,000-$25,000 per year (based on published tiers)
- Competitor B: $8,000-$40,000 per year
- Competitor C: $3,000-$15,000 per year
- Us: $12,000-$35,000 per year
Source 2: Win/loss interview pricing intel
When prospects share pricing they received:
- Competitor A quoted $18K-$22K in 6 of our competitive deals
- Competitor B quoted $25K-$30K in 4 deals
- Competitor C quoted $10K-$15K in 3 deals
Source 3: Funding and valuation analysis
If a competitor raised money recently, their valuation implies a revenue multiple:
Competitor A raised at $200M valuation → Likely $20M-$40M ARR (typical 5-10x revenue multiple for SaaS)
Divide by customer count: $20M-$40M ÷ 5,200 customers = $3,800-$7,700 per customer
This seems low compared to their pricing—suggests they have many small customers or high churn.
Triangulation: Estimate average deal size
| Competitor | Pricing Range | Deal Intel | Implied from Valuation | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Competitor A | $5K-$25K | $18K-$22K | $3.8K-$7.7K | $15K |
| Competitor B | $8K-$40K | $25K-$30K | - | $25K |
| Competitor C | $3K-$15K | $10K-$15K | - | $12K |
| Us | $12K-$35K | - | - | $20K |
Step 4: Calculate Relative Market Share
Now I can estimate revenue and market share:
| Competitor | Est. Customers | Est. Avg ARR | Est. Total ARR | Market Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Competitor A | 5,200 | $15,000 | $78M | 38% |
| Competitor B | 3,000 | $25,000 | $75M | 37% |
| Competitor C | 1,400 | $12,000 | $16.8M | 8% |
| Competitor D | 900 | $10,000 | $9M | 4% |
| Us | 480 | $20,000 | $9.6M | 5% |
| Others/Generic PM | - | - | $15M | 8% |
| Total Market | - | - | $203M | 100% |
This tells me:
- Market is ~$200M in our specific category
- Two big players (A and B) control 75% of market
- We're in the "challenger" group with 5% share
- Significant headroom for growth (95% of market not ours)
How to Present Market Share Analysis to Executives
Raw numbers don't tell a story. I package the analysis for different audiences:
For the CEO/Board: Strategic narrative
"The PMM platform market is approximately $200M annually. Two established players control 75% of the market. We're at 5% market share with significant growth opportunity.
Key insight: We're growing faster than market leaders (80% YoY vs. their estimated 30-40% YoY). At current growth rate, we'll capture 10-12% market share within 18 months.
Strategic implication: We should focus on displacing Competitor A's mid-market customers (their weakest segment, our strongest) rather than competing head-to-head in enterprise where Competitor B dominates."
For Sales: Competitive context
"Here's what the competitive landscape looks like:
- Competitor A has 10x our customer count but struggles with customer success (evidenced by lower NPS, higher churn)
- Competitor B targets enterprise; we rarely compete directly
- Competitor C is in our segment but we have higher average deal sizes
- 95% of potential customers don't use any of us—market share battle is secondary to market creation"
For Product: Roadmap implications
"Market share analysis shows Competitor A is winning in volume (small deals, high churn) and Competitor B is winning in enterprise. Our opportunity is mid-market customers who need:
- More sophistication than Competitor A's simple tools
- Faster deployment than Competitor B's enterprise platforms
- Better GTM-specific features than generic PM tools
This validates our product positioning and suggests we should prioritize [specific features]."
How to Update Market Share Estimates Quarterly
I don't rebuild this analysis from scratch every quarter. I update it:
Q1 2024 Update Process (30 minutes):
- Check for new funding announcements → update customer count estimates
- Review G2 review counts → extrapolate customer growth
- Scan competitor job postings → estimate team size changes
- Pull latest competitive deal data → validate we're tracking the right competitors
- Update estimates based on new data
I publish a quarterly update to leadership showing:
- Market share trend (are we gaining or losing?)
- Competitor growth rates
- New competitors entering the space
- Strategic implications
This keeps competitive intelligence current and actionable.
For teams tracking market share across multiple segments or geographies, platforms like Segment8 can automate competitive data aggregation and trend analysis across different market dimensions.
The Limitations to Acknowledge
This methodology isn't perfect. I always caveat my analysis:
Limitation 1: Estimates, not exact figures
"These are directional estimates within ±20% accuracy. Useful for strategic planning, not for public statements."
Limitation 2: Market definition is subjective
"We defined the market based on who we compete against in deals. Other stakeholders might define it differently."
Limitation 3: Private company data is triangulated
"We don't have access to actual customer or revenue data for most competitors. We've triangulated from multiple sources."
Limitation 4: Doesn't capture market growth
"These are snapshots. The market might be growing 40% annually, which changes the strategic math."
Being honest about limitations builds credibility. Executives trust analysis more when you acknowledge what you don't know.
Why This Approach Works Better Than Buying Reports
I've used both approaches: buying analyst reports and building my own analysis.
Analyst reports are great for:
- Analyst relations programs
- Enterprise sales credibility
- Broad market trends and forecasts
DIY analysis is better for:
- Defining your specific competitive set
- Current market dynamics (not 12 months old)
- Strategic planning and decision-making
- Understanding your actual position vs. who you compete with daily
Last quarter, my CEO referenced my market share analysis in three board presentations, two exec team strategy sessions, and a pricing discussion. He's never referenced a Gartner report.
Why? Because my analysis answered the actual questions he had about our competitive position in the market we're actually competing in.
You don't need a $15,000 analyst report to understand your market. You need data discipline, triangulation skills, and the willingness to say "this is my best estimate based on available data."
Most PMMs wait for budget approval to buy Forrester. The smart ones build market share analysis while everyone else is still filling out purchase request forms.